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2015-16 Federal Budget Summary

21/5/2015

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The Treasurer repeated his promise that, “There will be no new taxes on superannuation under this government” and indeed that is what was delivered in the 2015/16 Budget.

Whilst the 2014 Financial System Inquiry (FSI) included a number of recommendations related to superannuation, including possibly aligning pre – and post – retirement tax rates and reviewing the potentially distorting effects of the current capital gains tax and dividend imputation policies, the Budget has steered clear of these issues for now. These issues will be picked up by the Government’s Tax White Paper process, which commenced with a discussion paper issued in March and will continue over the rest of 2015. More changes to super are unlikely to occur before the 2016 election.

The Budget also confirmed that changes to the indexation of aged, disability support and veterans’ pensions, carer payments and the single parenting payment won’t happen in the coming year. A change to the indexation of these benefits would have seen them grow more slowly, but the controversial nature of this change has seen it excluded from this year’s Budget.

So what was in the 2015/16 Budget? Although superannuation was largely left untouched, we have provided some initial thoughts and commentary on the 2015/16 Federal Budget announcements below:

Government Balances Short-Term Fiscal Accommodation with Larger Deficits
The 2015/16 Budget has taken a step back from last year’s austerity. An expanded fiscal deficit, relative to the targets set a year ago, is now projected to be at 2.1% of GDP ($35.1bn) in 2015/16 and 1.5% of GDP in 2016/17 ($25.8bn)1. A medium term stance to tighten up fiscal policy has been maintained however and, like last year, a surplus is predicted by 2019/20. The economic assumptions underlying these figures are generally conservative and realistic in our opinion. However, there are still some downside risks to the volatile iron ore price which is assumed to be US$48 per tonne as well as risks to the exchange rate assumption of US$0.77. Overall, the economic views in the Budget are reasonable and we believe that the gradual winding back of the deficit as set out by the Government is achievable. The economy is in a position to absorb the medium term fiscal consolidation but will embrace the immediate relief in 2015/16 Budget after a loss of confidence in the wake of last year’s Budget.

In our view, at a time when Australian consumer confidence levels are low and business sentiment is mediocre, this Budget will be seen as constructive for financial markets. With no major corporate tax or welfare surprises, combined with a small cut to the small business tax rate and jobs initiatives, we do not see this Budget as posing any concerns for the equity market. Further, it will likely be seen in a positive light by the Reserve Bank, which may now feel less pressure to ease monetary policy in the near term. Debt rating agencies and Australian bond investors can also take comfort in the peak net debt-to-GDP ratio forecast of 18% (in 2016/17), which will help maintain Australia’s AAA sovereign debt rating.

Age Pension Eligibility Changes
Probably the biggest post-retirement change included in the Budget was in relation to the eligibility criteria for the Age Pension, which was flagged in a pre-Budget release by the Minister for Social Security.

There are three changes that have been made, which collectively mean that more people will qualify for a full Age Pension, but fewer people will qualify for a part Age Pension:

1.Asset test threshold upper limit decreases: At present, a retired couple owning a family home and holding up to $1.15 million in assets qualifies for a part pension. From 1 January 2017, this threshold will be reduced to $823,000 and this will reduce the number of people eligible for a part Age Pension. There are similar changes to thresholds for single homeowners and non-homeowners.

2.Asset test threshold lower limit increases: At present, a retired couple owning a family home and holding less than $286,500 in assets can qualify for a full Age Pension. From 1 January 2017, this threshold will be increased to $375,000 and this will increase the number of people eligible for a full Age Pension. Similar changes apply for single homeowners and non-homeowners.

3.Taper rate increases: The ‘taper rate’ for the assets test determines how much Age Pension someone receives. At present, the Age Pension entitlement is reduced by $1.50 a fortnight for every $1,000 of assets over the full Age Pension threshold. From 1 January 2017, the taper rate will increase to $3 per $1,000 of assets over the full Age Pension threshold and in effect narrow the band of people eligible for a part Age Pension and reduce the pension payable to those that are still eligible.

When taken together with last year’s Budget, which delayed the Superannuation Guarantee increases, the direction of the overall policy indicates a greater expectation that Australians will plan and provide for more of their own retirement in the future. Therefore, it will be important for future retirees, who may now be faced with the prospect of a reduced or no Age Pension, to review their financial position and consider the impact of the changes on their retirement planning.

Finally, under current rules, recipients of the Age Pension can continue to receive a full rate pension whilst absent from Australia for up to 26 weeks at a time. From 1 January 2017, the maximum period of absence will be reduced to 6 weeks. Pensioners who have lived in Australia for less than 35 years will be paid a reduced rate of pension, based on their Australian Working Life residence (period living in Australia as a permanent resident between age 16 and Age Pension age). Pensioners who have lived in Australia for more than 35 years, or who are terminally ill or severely impaired, will not be affected.
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Age Pension limits for some recipients of defined benefit income streams Some retirees receive pensions known as ‘defined benefit income streams’ from public sector or corporate defined benefit funds. Under the current rules, all or part of the income from their defined benefit pension can be excluded from the income test for Age Pension eligibility.

The Government has announced that, from 1 January 2016, the proportion of income that can be excluded from the income test will be capped at 10%. Recipients of Veterans’ Affairs pensions or defined benefit income streams paid by military superannuation funds will be exempt from this measure.

The extent to which this measure will reduce an individual’s social security benefits will depend on personal circumstances. It will be important for trustees and administrators to understand the nuances of this change as it is likely that pensioners will question the impact of the change for them and potentially need guidance.

Terminally ill to gain earlier access to superannuation
As announced by the Assistant Treasurer in the week before the Budget, superannuation fund members suffering terminal illnesses will be able to gain unrestricted tax free access to their superannuation if they are likely to die within two years. This is less restrictive and likely to give earlier access than the current requirement which requires a member to have less than 12 months to live. Early access will continue to be subject to certification from two medical practitioners (including a specialist). The new measure is expected to apply from 1 July 2015 and is a welcome change for superannuation fund members, as it means they could use the available funds to better access medical treatments or simply fulfill their goals while they are still alive.

Those superannuation funds that provide an insured terminal illness benefit are likely to need to amend their insurance policies to reflect the revised access arrangements for the terminal illness definition. Depending upon a superannuation fund’s insurance policy, it may also have an impact on insurance premiums for death cover, as insurers may need to factor in advance payment of up to two years for death benefits if they are paid on terminal illness.

Superannuation supervisory levies to increase
There will be increased supervisory levies on superannuation funds to fully recover the cost of superannuation activities undertaken by the Australian Taxation Office and Department of Human Services. The Government expects to collect about $12 million per year in additional funding from 1 July 2015 ($46.9 million over four years).

These additional levies are expected to double the funding applied to the Australian Taxation Office and Department of Human Services compared with 2014/15 expectations, and represent an increase of around 9% in the total supervisory levies expected to be collected for 2014/15 of $130.1 million.

Removal of red tape around lost and unclaimed super monies
From 1 July 2016, some improvements will take effect to remove redundant reporting obligations for superannuation funds and to streamline lost and unclaimed superannuation administrative arrangements. The changes are intended to make it easier to reunite individuals with their lost and unclaimed superannuation.

No further details about this measure have been provided in the Budget papers.

Serious Financial Crime Taskforce
As announced by the Treasurer last week, the Government will provide $127.6 million over four years to establish a Serious Financial Crime taskforce for investigations and prosecutions that will address superannuation and investment fraud, identity crime and tax evasion.

The actions of the Task Force are expected to provide a net increase to Government revenues, as well as assisting in maintaining the integrity and community confidence in Australian financial markets and regulatory systems.

Managed Investment Trusts
Managed investment trusts are unit trusts that are used as a collective investment vehicle (managed investment scheme under the Corporations Act). The Government is finally proceeding with the implementation of a new tax system for managed investment trusts with a 12-month transition period from 1 July 2015 to 1 July 2016. The changes were originally announced in 2010 (to apply from 1 July 2011) and have been deferred numerous times over the intervening period.

The changes are intended to reduce compliance costs and make Australian managed investment funds more attractive to investors, particularly international investors. The changes should provide greater flexibility in terms of distribution of income and allocation of tax liabilities to unit holders, flexibility to create new product opportunities and reduce uncertainty and tax compliance costs.

If you would like addition information in relation to how the budget changes may affect you personally, please feel free to contact your adviser.

Thanks to Russell Investments for providing this summary.

1 All references are in Australian dollars unless otherwise indicated.
2. Image Source 2UE

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Where are we in the investment cycle?

21/5/2015

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  • While corrections are inevitable, we still appear to be a long way from the peak in the investment cycle.
  • Shares are not unambiguously overvalued and on some measures are still cheap, uneven and below trend global and Australian growth is extending the economic recovery cycle, monetary conditions look set to remain easy and investors are far from euphoric.

It is now six years since the global financial crisis ended. From their 2009 lows US shares are up 212%, global shares are up 159% and Australian shares are up 91% (held back by higher interest rates, the commodity collapse & the high $A). Despite this, there seem to be constant predictions of a new disaster. This note looks at where we are in the investment cycle.

Time and Magnitude

A concern expressed by many it seems is that the cyclical bull market in the influential US share market is now more than six years old and this leaves it (and hence us) vulnerable to a cyclical bear. The next table shows the record of cyclical bull markets in US shares since World War 2. I have applied the definition that a cyclical bull market is a rising trend in shares that ends when shares have a 20% or more fall (ie a cyclical bear market) that takes more than 12 months to be reversed.
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The average cyclical bull market in the US has seen shares rise 177% and last 64 months. So far we have surpassed this with shares up 212% over 73 months. While not the longest, some fear this means the US share market is at risk of another bear market. However, there are some points to make in relation to this. First, there is no hard and fast rule regarding the timing of bull and bear cycles so it could be argued that the 19% fall in US shares in mid 2011 was a bear market. This would put the current cycle at a gain of 92% and 42 months duration, which is below average.

Second, global and Australian shares did have a bear market in 2011. As such, for their current bull market since the 2011 low global shares are up 81% over 42 months which is below the average since 1970 of 133% over 55 months. Similarly, Australian shares in the current bull market are up 51% over 43 months versus an average gain of 126% over 47 months. See next table.
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Finally, there is more to bull markets than time and magnitude.

The Investment Cycle

The next chart shows a stylised version of the investment cycle.

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Source: AMP Capital

A typical cyclical bull market in shares has three phases:

  • Phase 1 normally starts when economic conditions are still weak and confidence is poor, but smart investors start to see value in shares helped by ultra easy monetary conditions, low interest rates and low bond yields.
  • Phase 2 is driven by strengthening profits as economic growth turns up and investor scepticism starts to give way to some optimism.
  • While monetary policy may start to tighten it is from very easy conditions and remains easy as inflation remains low and so bond yields may be drifting higher but not enough to derail the cyclical upswing in shares.
  • Phase 3 sees investors move from optimism to euphoria helped by strong economic and profit conditions which pushes shares into overvalued territory. Meanwhile, strong economic conditions drive inflation problems and force central banks to move into tight monetary policy, which pushes bond yields significantly higher. The combination of overvaluation, investors being fully loaded up on shares and tight monetary policy sets the scene for a new bear market.
Typically the bull phase lasts three to five years. But it varies depending on how quickly recovery precedes, inflation rises and extremes of overvaluation & investor euphoria appear. As a result “bull markets do not die of old age but of exhaustion”.

Current point - not there yet!

So the big question is: are we at or near “exhaustion” for the cyclical bull market in shares? The best way to look at this is to assess market valuation, economic growth and inflation pressures, monetary conditions and investor sentiment.

  • Share market valuations are mostly okay. Sure, measured in isolation against their own history shares are no longer dirt cheap. In fact, forward price to earnings multiples in the US and Australia are above long term averages.
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Source: Thomson Reuters, AMP Capital

However, once the gap between share market earnings yields and bond yields is allowed for, shares still look cheap (next chart).
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Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital

  • The global economy is continuing to grow at an okay pace. While growth is constrained by past standards, a constrained and slower recovery is a longer recovery. Year after year has seen growth remain below longer term trend levels globally and in Australia. However, there is a silver lining – spare capacity globally remains significant. This means we are a long way from the sort of inflation and debt excesses that precede cyclical downturns.
  • Global monetary conditions look set to remain easy. Continued spare capacity and the lack of inflationary pressure has seen global monetary conditions ease not tighten this year. And the Fed's first interest rate hike is rightly getting pushed out in response to the dampening impact of the strong $US. So a 1994 scenario where aggressive interest rate hikes pushes bond yields sharply higher and threatens shares still looks a long way off.
  • Finally, while investor optimism is up it’s a long way from euphoria. In the US investor flows are still going into bond funds, not shares, and measures of investor sentiment are in the middle of their normal ranges. In Australia sentiment towards shares as a wise destination for savings remains low and more investors still prefer bank deposits.
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Source: Westpac/Melbourne Institute, AMP Capital

So from a broad brush perspective we are not seeing the signs of exhaustion that come at cyclical peaks and so the cyclical bull market in shares looks like it has further to go.

Global Divergences

Finally, for those who like to follow the Shiller or cyclically adjusted PE, while US shares are expensive on this measure most other major share markets are actually cheap because they have lagged the US over the last six years. In other words there are plenty of opportunities for investors outside the US.

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Source: Global Financial Data, AMP Capital

Investment Implications


First, while corrections should be anticipated – with Greece and the Fed being potential triggers – we appear to be a long way from the peak in the investment cycle.

Second, while the US shares register as expensive on some metrics this is not like 2000 when all markets were expensive.

Finally, while Australian shares should do okay this year better opportunities still lie abroad where the slump in commodity prices is not a drag on growth but rather a positive.

For more about the author and source of article:  Oliver’s Insights http://www.ampcapital.com.au/article-detail?alias=/olivers-insights/april-2015/where-are-we-in-the-investment-cycle

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Are you really ready to retire?

21/5/2015

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100,000 people will retire annually for the next 20 years – Will you be able to pay for yours?

The recent release of the Treasury’s Intergenerational Report, projecting how the economy and population will look in 40 years, has raised the importance of planning and preparing for a sustainable retirement.

Ryan Dobbrick Principal Planner of Cotter Financial Services, believes the Report is a wake-up call for Australians to seek quality professional financial advice, especially when planning for retirement.

“In the next 20 years potentially more than 100,000 extra people will retire each year, there has never been a greater need for Australians to plan their retirement. In the last financial year the number of people over 65 years of age has increased by over 100,000 people.[1] Further, the Intergenerational Report estimates that the number of Australians over 65 will double by 2055[2],” Mr Dobbrick said.

As well as the impacts of our changing population that are highlighted in the Intergenerational Report, Mr Dobbrick has witnessed some alarming trends and issues that are not being considered when it comes to retirement planning. Many people are underestimating the funds required for their retirement years.  A benchmark of almost $60,000 per annum is required for a couple who own their own home to live a comfortable retirement.[3] Only around half of pre-retirees have started thinking seriously about retirement before reaching 55 years of age.[4]

Mr Dobbrick believes that starting your retirement planning early can help you make the most of your savings and potentially reduce your reliance on the Age Pension, so you can live the retirement of your dreams. Currently on average people are waiting until just seven years from retirement to begin planning.[5] Planning for longevity is particularly important with life expectancies predicted to increase from 91.1 to 95.1 years for men and 93.6 to 96.6 years for women by 2054/55. Further, it is expected there will be over 40,000 people living to over 100 years of age by 2054/55[6].

Mr Dobbrick hopes that the Intergenerational Report will be the catalyst for pre-retirees to seek professional financial advice about their retirement. “Our ageing population and a massive reduction in the number of working age people per every person over 65 means more people are or will be living in retirement with greater demands on fewer taxpayers (currently there are 4.5 working Australians supporting 1 person over 65, with this expected to decrease to 2.7 in 2055, compared to 7.3 in 1975[1]).  This demographic trend will place enormous pressure on Australia’s Aged Care and Healthcare spending highlighting the importance for Australians to plan a self-sufficient retirement.”

Mr Dobbrick says retirement is so much more than just superannuation and there are a number of retirement strategies that can be implemented to make the most of your circumstances and retirement wishes. We aim to help individuals or couples to articulate what they would like their retirement lifestyle to look like and whether or not they have the cash flow or assets required to fund that lifestyle within their desired time frames. Starting your planning early is crucial in enabling you to implement strategies now to work towards your overall financial goals.

A retirement plan should consider both your Estate Plan, as many people reaching retirement age also have financial dependents, as well as your Aged Care plan. “My role is to act as your central coordinator, taking an overarching view of your entire financial life and providing advice and insights about how the choices you make in the short-term could affect your financial freedom in the long-term,” Mr Dobbrick said.

For more information to help you create a Retirement Plan that is compatible within your overall Financial Plan, contact Cotter Financial Services.

Ryan Dobbrick is a financial adviser at Cotter Financial Services. Cotter Financial Services and its advisers are Authorised Representatives of Fortnum Private Wealth Pty Ltd ABN 54 139 889 535 AFSL 357306 Australian Credit Licence No 357306 trading as Fortnum Financial Advisers.

This information is of a general nature only and neither represents nor is intended to be personal advice on any particular matter. Cotter Financial Services strongly suggests that no person should act specifically on the basis of the information in this document, but should obtain appropriate professional advice based on their own personal circumstances.

Sources: [1] http://apo.org.au/files/Resource/2015_igr.ashx_.pdf – Executive Summary [1] ABS 3101.0 Australian Demographics Statistics June 2014 [2] http://apo.org.au/files/Resource/2015_igr.ashx_.pdf – Executive Summary [3] AFSA Retirement Standard www.superannuation.asn.au [4] REST – The Journey Begins Report www.rest.com.au [5] [5] AFSA Retirement Standard www.superannuation.asn.au [5] Colonial First State Presentation – Understanding Baby Boomers https://prezi.com/ruiiohivo6bt/understanding-the-baby-boomers/?utm_campaign=share&utm_medium=copy Slide 91 [6] http://apo.org.au/files/Resource/2015_igr.ashx_.pdf – Executive Summary
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